Washington Post: anti-missile defense against Iran costs Israel $285 million per day.

You say this until we have to consider how many anti-missile munitions the United States would want to protect its navy in the event of a Chinese reunification with Taiwan

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Timestamps of some kind would be nice if possible

Iran has quite a few tricks up their sleeves. Unless America keeps ships so far out of range that it significantly reduces their usefulness in combat, they WILL face the drone/missile storms that they have lost every single war game simulation against. I don’t think anybody here is under any illusion that Iran could 1v1 the U.S. and come out on top of things militarily and economically, even on its own turf, but Iran certainly can make the war very costly in capital, and political capital both domestically and internationally. Nobody likes to stick in a messy, disastrous war where you aren’t the defender. Iran would make the unpopularity of the Iraq war look like a joke. There’s no 9/11 to rally behind. US troop morale is regularly at record lows. Recruitment will fall deeper into the shitter. Iran has stated they will be mining the Strait of Hormuz if direct conflict with the U.S. breaks out. The strongest card Iran really holds is economic. The can make the global economy scream if they need to.

Lots of disparaging comments here surrounding China, but I’m sure if conflict escalates to the point the US is direct, China would absolutely not mind providing material support insofar as Iran needs it to keep the U.S. navy occupied or better yet, sunk. It is no secret that field testing of combined missile and drone warfare against the U.S. navy would naturally be something China wants to see play out as frequently as possible.

Very. I doubt they do. The only reason I say it at all is the state media announcements from earlier today stating that tonight there will be ”a surprise tonight that the world will remember for centuries.”

Bless Iran for still standing firmly when the situation looks its most bleak. We will see the end of the Zionist entity in our lifetimes because of the bravery of the resistance and martyrs

I fear for the Iranian people that you are right. I know I have a heavy heart for the suffering that will come, and perhaps am imagining only the absolute worst case scenarios. I pray that I’m underestimating Iran because we are looking doom and gloom in the face. But alas, here we are

The ball of history is rolling now, and nobody can stop it. Inshallah Iran will prove its decisions to have been wise

I mean… maybe? It’s a real rock and hard place situation Iran is in. Risk getting struck first (devastating), preemptively attack and therefore invite being struck with cause (devastating), or test a nuke and hope it is enough of a deterrent to keep the U.S. from attacking (devastating if it doesn’t work).

All of these options have such little upside and such huge downside. It is just not a good situation at all

If Iran does have a secret nuke(s), it needs to test one TONIGHT.

This might be an unpopular opinion here, but frankly unless Iran wants to sit at the negotiating table with the U.S. and likely accept humiliating terms, nuclear deterrent is really the only way it can hope to prevent absolute devastation that will take decades to recover from and exert any outward regional influence.

Maybe my heart is too soft, but I don’t want to see Iran destroyed and a green light for increased genocidal aggression in Gaza over getting to keep firing a handful of potshots a day at the Zionist entity’s infrastructure.

A win is a win, an impact is an impact

Oh it will definitely drag out for years, but by “situation” I mean Iran’s ability to have any serious outward regional influence for a long time. The first thing the U.S. will do is decimate Iran’s infrastructure like it did in Iraq. The difference is that Iran is some of the least traversable terrain on the planet. Iran’s story will be written for decades in advance

I believe it’s already too late for Iran to pull that off, let alone technologically feasible for them. I don’t know what the answer is, and unfortunately I think the best answer might be sit down and negotiate with the U.S. now before millions potentially die and the genocide of Gaza has zero hope of being ended. If Iran strikes US bases and does not have direct material support from Russia or China, there is really only delaying the inevitable in a war with the U.S.: absolute ruin of Iranian infrastructure in some of the most difficult to navigate terrain in the world, and utter devastation of their military assets that let them have any chance of standing against western imperialist action in the future.

That doesn’t mean the U.S. will win, achieve regime change, or occupy parts of Iran, but it does mean that Iran will be fucked beyond all recognition for a long, long time. Iran either needs to demonstrate a nuclear test in a remote place within Iran TONIGHT or sit down and negotiate, and I would go as far as to say that it should not even hesitate to accept terms up to no longer launching missiles at Israel.

Turks are dickheads in the border

Unfortunately yeah, why I had to add the “if”

But definitely get her to Kuwait

If you can hold out for a few more hours, the situation might already be finished, and not in a good way

May Allah awaken the people…

Depends where she is in Iraq and if she has a place to actually go in Kuwait, but Turkey is probably safer if she can get in

Well probably yes, which is why I personally think the US is sending an additional carrier (Nimitz) that will be decommissioned next year anyway

If the U.S. gets involved there is a 0% chance things go nuclear unless Iran sinks a carrier, then there is a slightly more than zero chance the U.S. tests a nuke or something to demonstrate to other world powers (China) that sinking a carrier could be met with a nuclear response.

If the U.S. doesn’t get involved, also a 0% chance nukes get used. Iran won’t for obviously reasons, the most obvious of which is they almost certainly don’t have one, and Israel won’t because their nukes exist purely as theatre for a defense against an existential threat to the existence of Israel.

The one, insane but unlikely caveat here is that Iranian state media made a statement a few minutes ago saying “there will be a surprise tonight that the world will remember for centuries.”

It would be insane, but if Iran has some kind of credible intelligence that a U.S. attack is 100% imminent, I could see Iran feasibly running a nuclear test somewhere remote within Iran as a deterrent. That would easily be one of the craziest geopolitical events since WWII though, considering there is a fair amount of intelligence surrounding Iran’s nuclear programs, and an entire secret refining/nuke building facility would be near impossible to pull off

First of all, I wish he wasn’t president, but since he is I at least wish he was mentally coherent to remember his “fire and fury” comments and make them again and then do nothing again