Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I’m going to guess B2s from Diego Garcia use MOP to hit Fordo and we argue the next 24 hours over whether it worked or not, and at the same time Israel goes ballistic on Tehran.
I think if we look at Yemen and how Israel and the US work together, we can see that America is good at SEAD and removing all the anti-air systems, and they are good at heavy strikes with bunker busters at specific locations. Israel generally does the counter value and massacring, it will be them leveling Tehran chunk by chunk with inexpensive stand-in strikes after America clears the path.
Iran will obviously want to punish in response, and they will try to do large launch volleys. Do they have other tricks up their sleeve? America will probably be ready to strike the launchers when they surface. Not sure how this will play out.
Keep in mind though, Tehran is huge. It’s like 8 times bigger than Gaza in population and bigger in size. Israel couldn’t completely level Gaza from the sidelines right next to their country with no anti-air to speak of. They had to send in diaper forces with bulldozers and explosives. Why will they be capable thousands of miles away in a city 10 times as big with anti-air? There are 17 million people here, and they don’t all have underground bunkers like the Israelis.
Iran has quite a few tricks up their sleeves. Unless America keeps ships so far out of range that it significantly reduces their usefulness in combat, they WILL face the drone/missile storms that they have lost every single war game simulation against. I don’t think anybody here is under any illusion that Iran could 1v1 the U.S. and come out on top of things militarily and economically, even on its own turf, but Iran certainly can make the war very costly in capital, and political capital both domestically and internationally. Nobody likes to stick in a messy, disastrous war where you aren’t the defender. Iran would make the unpopularity of the Iraq war look like a joke. There’s no 9/11 to rally behind. US troop morale is regularly at record lows. Recruitment will fall deeper into the shitter. Iran has stated they will be mining the Strait of Hormuz if direct conflict with the U.S. breaks out. The strongest card Iran really holds is economic. The can make the global economy scream if they need to.
Lots of disparaging comments here surrounding China, but I’m sure if conflict escalates to the point the US is direct, China would absolutely not mind providing material support insofar as Iran needs it to keep the U.S. navy occupied or better yet, sunk. It is no secret that field testing of combined missile and drone warfare against the U.S. navy would naturally be something China wants to see play out as frequently as possible.
B-2s aren’t currently at Diego Garcia anymore, they got rotated out for B-52s, which are currently there. But the B-2s can carry out the mission from Whiteman without issue. If they fly over the Pacific, transponders and radio silent, nobody will know that they’ve even taken off or are airborne.
Corridors are already open to Tehran for stand in strikes of some sort, main issue for Israel is that it’s a 3000km round trip. But yes otherwise correct, American SEAD and bunker buster capabilities are needed for the rest of Iran and underground targets there, and for more permanent corridors.
As for launchers, Iran should’ve already dispersed them from bases in the east and all over the east, where Israel can’t reach. They should all be at remote locations dispersed and ready to fire the second the US starts bombing. That would guarantee them a retaliatory capability even if the US bombs the entrances and exits to all missile cities throughout the country.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/131950
2 B2s took off from Whiteman a couple hours back. I assume they will rendezvous with a tanker for refuel and fighter escort
The US says it’s for training, and I highly doubt they’d be radio on. If they’re going to strike Iran in the next 24 hours, it probably won’t be those two, but others which are radio silent, so these two acting as a distraction.
3000km round trip I hadn’t fully appreciated. Damn Iran really needs to take out Ashdod refinery and completely shut down domestic jet fuel production. I would make that priority number one
The US understands it is an aerial military force and this is the most important thing they need to be good at in order to maintain their ability to project power.
Solving this problem would render the US impotent.