• ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
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    11 days ago

    First, let’s remember that Russia tried to do exactly what you’re suggesting in the first two weeks. They rolled up to Kiev and gave Ukrainians an ultimatum. This almost worked when the agreements were initialled in Istanbul. Then the west told Ukrainians that they would back them to the end and that they had to fight. That’s how the war of attrition started. Did Russia want that kind of war? Clearly not. Did they have a choice in the end, also clearly not.

    Similarly, China will likely try doing what you suggest, but then if the US and the vassals decide not to back down they’re going to find themselves in a war of attrition as well. However, there’s a big difference between South Asia and Ukraine in terms of logistics. While the west was able to funnel weapons into Ukraine easily through Europe, it will be much harder to do with Taiwan given that its an island. I personally can’t see how the US could sustain a long term campaign against China, especially given that China controls many critical inputs for weapons production, and existing stocks are now severely depleted in Ukraine.

    So, while China would absolutely not want to be dragged into a protracted war, it would be sheer idiocy for them not to plan for one while hoping for a quick decisive win.