I’ve predicted it before, and every news story has me more convinced- the US is heading towards a military coup, probably after Trump makes himself a dictator and we lose a war with Iran. America’s Caesar/Napoleon will be a liberal driller type who makes moderate wokeness and abundance the national religion, but reindustrializes the country like Stalin.
The US spent decades killing trade union movements by de-industrializing itself, it’s not going to want to have to deal with labor movements once again
Trump has no industrial policy, is cutting federal government funding on key sectors especially academia and sciences, and mass laying off federal employees
Does this look like re-industrialization to you?
What is happening with Trump’s global tariffs is becoming clear though:
The US is leveraging China’s vast industrial capacity to destroy the European economy. Have you noticed that European car manufacturers and green tech sector are being destroyed by China’s vastly cheaper and superior products?
Yeah, good luck dealing with that. The EU economy is cooked, and what’s going to happen is a massive harvest by US finance capitalism as they did to the USSR 30 years ago.
Perhaps it will be like what Varoufakis says, the EU will be coerced into de-industrializing itself and import from the US manufacturers, swapping the role with the US to prop up whatever is left of the US industrial base.
What this means is that we’re about to see a full blown mercantilist fight in the Global South as many exporter countries find their domestic industries unable to compete with the cheap Chinese goods flooding their countries, so they have to either make a deal with the US, or be forced to take IMF/foreign loans to bail out their failing economy. And by doing so, the US reshapes the global supply chain through its finance capital as we see a bailing out through IMF/foreign loans on a scale never seen before (Argentina is taking a lead on that).
The above is only made possible because:
The Ukraine war has destroyed Europe’s energy sovereignty and negated their ability to expand the EU consumer market to replace those of the US
Covid pandemic has stalled China’s attempt to transition into a domestic consumption led economy, and with the investment-led property bubble bursting, forcing it to return to relying even more on exporting EVs and solar panels to make up for the drop in GDP growth
The only way out of this is for China to abandon the neoliberal export-led growth model, run up its fiscal deficit (by giving jobs guarantee) to offset the loss in export and investment to drive up a 1.4 billion consumer market that capable of absorbing the global surplus capacities.
This will stop the exporter countries’ reliance on selling to the US, and when countries no longer have to run a trade surplus against America, the dollar becomes useless. This is how you properly de-dollarize.
This seems to me to be a very accurate analysis. I agree that it looks like this is what is happening. Thanks, I hope people see this comment.
I think there are a lot of signs and a lot of rhetoric, that China does try to shift in the general direction of an internal consumer market, even if it’s not looking to become a full shift yet. But we can’t control what governments or corporations do. And they don’t care one bit for our advice.
The real question in every analysis is, what will all that mean for actual marxist struggle on the ground internationaly (in the global South, in Europe, in the US, etc.)?
There is no coup. The bourgeois establishment doesn’t lose their influence simply because Trump is now the president. There are different strains of bourgeoisie but long-standing establishment like Wall Street simply isn’t going to go away.
The current is already set in motion back in 2015 when electoral populism began to emerge under the flags of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The contradictions of long-term deindustrialization could no longer be ignored. What you are seeing right now is nothing more than an extension of the first Trump presidency that started in 2016 and the first US-China trade war that began in 2018 - all of which was set in motion in order to escape the heightened contradictions that will eventually befell American capitalism.
What became problematic back then was the EU could become a kingmaker if the US and China went at each other. So the Europe problem had to be dealt with first. The opportunity arose when Nord Stream 2 was about to become operational in 2021. This happened under the Biden administration.
Same with China. The Covid pandemic couldn’t have given the US a better opportunity to start its aggression when China is struggling to transition into a domestic consumption economy. This was also why Biden started to sanction Chinese EVs back in early 2024, because the only other place the bulk of those EVs could be sold to is Europe!
Please see my comment to another user above. There is no coup. What you’re seeing is simply the logical extension from Trump I.
The constraints facing US re-industrialization is just like what constrained the KMT from doing land reform in mainland China - their deeply entrenched class relations with the feudal landlords meant that the KMT was destined to lose the ideological war in the mainland. They could only initiate their own land reform after they had retreated to a small island called Taiwan where such class relations did not exist.
It does kinda feel like we’re due for an FDR 2.0 to take the pressure off if America isn’t gonna go full fascism, but things are gonna have to get a lot worse for that to happen. Life is mediocre now but we’re not close to Great Depression levels yet
I’m predicting that Liberal Caesar will introduce central planning, realizing it’s the only way to make the US a world power again. I said “like Stalin” as a joke, but they’ll make the US into a State Capitalist mixed economy where the commanding heights are under effective state control in order to reindustrialize.
they’ll make the US into a State Capitalist mixed economy where the commanding heights are under effective state control in order to reindustrialize
I can’t tell if this is a bit.
The US will absolutely not reindustrialize to any meaningful degree. They are still in the process of stealing the copper wire, and you think they’ll aquiesce to state control?
The fact that you think a military coup is likely AND that it would lead to American Stalinism is absurd. An empty materialist analysis that displays a profound ignorance of American history
I also predict this. Yanquis love the fucking milliary so much they would gladly lick the boots of a “reasonable” junta. I’ve pitched it to libs in real life just to get a sense of their acceptance and like half are like “ooh what a good idea!” like it doesn’t undermine the very foundations of their precious constitutional governance. Worse part is it probably would be better than the sham democracy we have, but they simply do not understand what life under a milliary regime is like.
Would be pretty ironic though considering the history if US backed coups. At least Latin Americans could get a good laugh in.
Lmao libs that won’t arrest Trump for trying to overthrow the government because it will “undermine democracy” will acquiesce to the Beautiful Generals taking control to restore “the norms”
I’ve predicted it before, and every news story has me more convinced- the US is heading towards a military coup, probably after Trump makes himself a dictator and we lose a war with Iran. America’s Caesar/Napoleon will be a liberal driller type who makes moderate wokeness and abundance the national religion, but reindustrializes the country like Stalin.
This is not going to happen:
Does this look like re-industrialization to you?
What is happening with Trump’s global tariffs is becoming clear though:
The US is leveraging China’s vast industrial capacity to destroy the European economy. Have you noticed that European car manufacturers and green tech sector are being destroyed by China’s vastly cheaper and superior products?
Yeah, good luck dealing with that. The EU economy is cooked, and what’s going to happen is a massive harvest by US finance capitalism as they did to the USSR 30 years ago.
Perhaps it will be like what Varoufakis says, the EU will be coerced into de-industrializing itself and import from the US manufacturers, swapping the role with the US to prop up whatever is left of the US industrial base.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff is forcing China to dump its surplus export goods on the rest of the Global South. The latest trade numbers on China’s export shows that its export has grown 8.3% yoy in September!
What this means is that we’re about to see a full blown mercantilist fight in the Global South as many exporter countries find their domestic industries unable to compete with the cheap Chinese goods flooding their countries, so they have to either make a deal with the US, or be forced to take IMF/foreign loans to bail out their failing economy. And by doing so, the US reshapes the global supply chain through its finance capital as we see a bailing out through IMF/foreign loans on a scale never seen before (Argentina is taking a lead on that).
The above is only made possible because:
The only way out of this is for China to abandon the neoliberal export-led growth model, run up its fiscal deficit (by giving jobs guarantee) to offset the loss in export and investment to drive up a 1.4 billion consumer market that capable of absorbing the global surplus capacities.
This will stop the exporter countries’ reliance on selling to the US, and when countries no longer have to run a trade surplus against America, the dollar becomes useless. This is how you properly de-dollarize.
This seems to me to be a very accurate analysis. I agree that it looks like this is what is happening. Thanks, I hope people see this comment.
I think there are a lot of signs and a lot of rhetoric, that China does try to shift in the general direction of an internal consumer market, even if it’s not looking to become a full shift yet. But we can’t control what governments or corporations do. And they don’t care one bit for our advice.
The real question in every analysis is, what will all that mean for actual marxist struggle on the ground internationaly (in the global South, in Europe, in the US, etc.)?
Did you even read their comment? It doesn’t say Trump will reindustrialize, it says the person that coups him will
It is delusional regardless. The Burgerreich is not getting couped, and if it did, reindustrialization would be the last thing to happen
There is no coup. The bourgeois establishment doesn’t lose their influence simply because Trump is now the president. There are different strains of bourgeoisie but long-standing establishment like Wall Street simply isn’t going to go away.
The current is already set in motion back in 2015 when electoral populism began to emerge under the flags of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The contradictions of long-term deindustrialization could no longer be ignored. What you are seeing right now is nothing more than an extension of the first Trump presidency that started in 2016 and the first US-China trade war that began in 2018 - all of which was set in motion in order to escape the heightened contradictions that will eventually befell American capitalism.
What became problematic back then was the EU could become a kingmaker if the US and China went at each other. So the Europe problem had to be dealt with first. The opportunity arose when Nord Stream 2 was about to become operational in 2021. This happened under the Biden administration.
Same with China. The Covid pandemic couldn’t have given the US a better opportunity to start its aggression when China is struggling to transition into a domestic consumption economy. This was also why Biden started to sanction Chinese EVs back in early 2024, because the only other place the bulk of those EVs could be sold to is Europe!
Right, so, I’m not sure you understand the concept of a “Caesar.”
Please see my comment to another user above. There is no coup. What you’re seeing is simply the logical extension from Trump I.
The constraints facing US re-industrialization is just like what constrained the KMT from doing land reform in mainland China - their deeply entrenched class relations with the feudal landlords meant that the KMT was destined to lose the ideological war in the mainland. They could only initiate their own land reform after they had retreated to a small island called Taiwan where such class relations did not exist.
Yes, but I’m talking about what may happen after that fails.
It does kinda feel like we’re due for an FDR 2.0 to take the pressure off if America isn’t gonna go full fascism, but things are gonna have to get a lot worse for that to happen. Life is mediocre now but we’re not close to Great Depression levels yet
That simply will not happen. Capitalism without central planning doesn’t fully industrialize in that manner or at that speed.
I’m predicting that Liberal Caesar will introduce central planning, realizing it’s the only way to make the US a world power again. I said “like Stalin” as a joke, but they’ll make the US into a State Capitalist mixed economy where the commanding heights are under effective state control in order to reindustrialize.
I can’t tell if this is a bit.
The US will absolutely not reindustrialize to any meaningful degree. They are still in the process of stealing the copper wire, and you think they’ll aquiesce to state control?
Okay, do you not understand what a “military coup” is?
The fact that you think a military coup is likely AND that it would lead to American Stalinism is absurd. An empty materialist analysis that displays a profound ignorance of American history
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I love the stimulating intellectual discourse on hexbear dot net with my fellow materialism understanders
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Wait so are you joking or does this actually sound plausible to you?
Do I think a Bonapartist dictatorship is at least possible after American capital exhausts all other options? Yes.
Idealist eternalism isn’t any better.
Because that is clearly what I am advocating for. Online leftists read charitably challenge (impossible)
You started with the smugness. Don’t play the victim over and over when you contribute bad arguments.
I also predict this. Yanquis love the fucking milliary so much they would gladly lick the boots of a “reasonable” junta. I’ve pitched it to libs in real life just to get a sense of their acceptance and like half are like “ooh what a good idea!” like it doesn’t undermine the very foundations of their precious constitutional governance. Worse part is it probably would be better than the sham democracy we have, but they simply do not understand what life under a milliary regime is like.
Would be pretty ironic though considering the history if US backed coups. At least Latin Americans could get a good laugh in.
Lmao libs that won’t arrest Trump for trying to overthrow the government because it will “undermine democracy” will acquiesce to the Beautiful Generals taking control to restore “the norms”