The US spent decades killing trade union movements by de-industrializing itself, it’s not going to want to have to deal with labor movements once again
Trump has no industrial policy, is cutting federal government funding on key sectors especially academia and sciences, and mass laying off federal employees
Does this look like re-industrialization to you?
What is happening with Trump’s global tariffs is becoming clear though:
The US is leveraging China’s vast industrial capacity to destroy the European economy. Have you noticed that European car manufacturers and green tech sector are being destroyed by China’s vastly cheaper and superior products?
Yeah, good luck dealing with that. The EU economy is cooked, and what’s going to happen is a massive harvest by US finance capitalism as they did to the USSR 30 years ago.
Perhaps it will be like what Varoufakis says, the EU will be coerced into de-industrializing itself and import from the US manufacturers, swapping the role with the US to prop up whatever is left of the US industrial base.
What this means is that we’re about to see a full blown mercantilist fight in the Global South as many exporter countries find their domestic industries unable to compete with the cheap Chinese goods flooding their countries, so they have to either make a deal with the US, or be forced to take IMF/foreign loans to bail out their failing economy. And by doing so, the US reshapes the global supply chain through its finance capital as we see a bailing out through IMF/foreign loans on a scale never seen before (Argentina is taking a lead on that).
The above is only made possible because:
The Ukraine war has destroyed Europe’s energy sovereignty and negated their ability to expand the EU consumer market to replace those of the US
Covid pandemic has stalled China’s attempt to transition into a domestic consumption led economy, and with the investment-led property bubble bursting, forcing it to return to relying even more on exporting EVs and solar panels to make up for the drop in GDP growth
The only way out of this is for China to abandon the neoliberal export-led growth model, run up its fiscal deficit (by giving jobs guarantee) to offset the loss in export and investment to drive up a 1.4 billion consumer market that capable of absorbing the global surplus capacities.
This will stop the exporter countries’ reliance on selling to the US, and when countries no longer have to run a trade surplus against America, the dollar becomes useless. This is how you properly de-dollarize.
This seems to me to be a very accurate analysis. I agree that it looks like this is what is happening. Thanks, I hope people see this comment.
I think there are a lot of signs and a lot of rhetoric, that China does try to shift in the general direction of an internal consumer market, even if it’s not looking to become a full shift yet. But we can’t control what governments or corporations do. And they don’t care one bit for our advice.
The real question in every analysis is, what will all that mean for actual marxist struggle on the ground internationaly (in the global South, in Europe, in the US, etc.)?
There is no coup. The bourgeois establishment doesn’t lose their influence simply because Trump is now the president. There are different strains of bourgeoisie but long-standing establishment like Wall Street simply isn’t going to go away.
The current is already set in motion back in 2015 when electoral populism began to emerge under the flags of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The contradictions of long-term deindustrialization could no longer be ignored. What you are seeing right now is nothing more than an extension of the first Trump presidency that started in 2016 and the first US-China trade war that began in 2018 - all of which was set in motion in order to escape the heightened contradictions that will eventually befell American capitalism.
What became problematic back then was the EU could become a kingmaker if the US and China went at each other. So the Europe problem had to be dealt with first. The opportunity arose when Nord Stream 2 was about to become operational in 2021. This happened under the Biden administration.
Same with China. The Covid pandemic couldn’t have given the US a better opportunity to start its aggression when China is struggling to transition into a domestic consumption economy. This was also why Biden started to sanction Chinese EVs back in early 2024, because the only other place the bulk of those EVs could be sold to is Europe!
Please see my comment to another user above. There is no coup. What you’re seeing is simply the logical extension from Trump I.
The constraints facing US re-industrialization is just like what constrained the KMT from doing land reform in mainland China - their deeply entrenched class relations with the feudal landlords meant that the KMT was destined to lose the ideological war in the mainland. They could only initiate their own land reform after they had retreated to a small island called Taiwan where such class relations did not exist.
This is not going to happen:
Does this look like re-industrialization to you?
What is happening with Trump’s global tariffs is becoming clear though:
The US is leveraging China’s vast industrial capacity to destroy the European economy. Have you noticed that European car manufacturers and green tech sector are being destroyed by China’s vastly cheaper and superior products?
Yeah, good luck dealing with that. The EU economy is cooked, and what’s going to happen is a massive harvest by US finance capitalism as they did to the USSR 30 years ago.
Perhaps it will be like what Varoufakis says, the EU will be coerced into de-industrializing itself and import from the US manufacturers, swapping the role with the US to prop up whatever is left of the US industrial base.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff is forcing China to dump its surplus export goods on the rest of the Global South. The latest trade numbers on China’s export shows that its export has grown 8.3% yoy in September!
What this means is that we’re about to see a full blown mercantilist fight in the Global South as many exporter countries find their domestic industries unable to compete with the cheap Chinese goods flooding their countries, so they have to either make a deal with the US, or be forced to take IMF/foreign loans to bail out their failing economy. And by doing so, the US reshapes the global supply chain through its finance capital as we see a bailing out through IMF/foreign loans on a scale never seen before (Argentina is taking a lead on that).
The above is only made possible because:
The only way out of this is for China to abandon the neoliberal export-led growth model, run up its fiscal deficit (by giving jobs guarantee) to offset the loss in export and investment to drive up a 1.4 billion consumer market that capable of absorbing the global surplus capacities.
This will stop the exporter countries’ reliance on selling to the US, and when countries no longer have to run a trade surplus against America, the dollar becomes useless. This is how you properly de-dollarize.
This seems to me to be a very accurate analysis. I agree that it looks like this is what is happening. Thanks, I hope people see this comment.
I think there are a lot of signs and a lot of rhetoric, that China does try to shift in the general direction of an internal consumer market, even if it’s not looking to become a full shift yet. But we can’t control what governments or corporations do. And they don’t care one bit for our advice.
The real question in every analysis is, what will all that mean for actual marxist struggle on the ground internationaly (in the global South, in Europe, in the US, etc.)?
Did you even read their comment? It doesn’t say Trump will reindustrialize, it says the person that coups him will
It is delusional regardless. The Burgerreich is not getting couped, and if it did, reindustrialization would be the last thing to happen
There is no coup. The bourgeois establishment doesn’t lose their influence simply because Trump is now the president. There are different strains of bourgeoisie but long-standing establishment like Wall Street simply isn’t going to go away.
The current is already set in motion back in 2015 when electoral populism began to emerge under the flags of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The contradictions of long-term deindustrialization could no longer be ignored. What you are seeing right now is nothing more than an extension of the first Trump presidency that started in 2016 and the first US-China trade war that began in 2018 - all of which was set in motion in order to escape the heightened contradictions that will eventually befell American capitalism.
What became problematic back then was the EU could become a kingmaker if the US and China went at each other. So the Europe problem had to be dealt with first. The opportunity arose when Nord Stream 2 was about to become operational in 2021. This happened under the Biden administration.
Same with China. The Covid pandemic couldn’t have given the US a better opportunity to start its aggression when China is struggling to transition into a domestic consumption economy. This was also why Biden started to sanction Chinese EVs back in early 2024, because the only other place the bulk of those EVs could be sold to is Europe!
Right, so, I’m not sure you understand the concept of a “Caesar.”
Please see my comment to another user above. There is no coup. What you’re seeing is simply the logical extension from Trump I.
The constraints facing US re-industrialization is just like what constrained the KMT from doing land reform in mainland China - their deeply entrenched class relations with the feudal landlords meant that the KMT was destined to lose the ideological war in the mainland. They could only initiate their own land reform after they had retreated to a small island called Taiwan where such class relations did not exist.
Yes, but I’m talking about what may happen after that fails.