For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.
Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.
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Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.
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The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.
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The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.
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Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.
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The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.
I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
This sounds like absolutely major changes in the Chinese model being announced by Xi.
“Rectifying disorderly low-price competition among enterprises” is probably the most important one. It sounds like something of the order of “houses are for living, not for speculation”, the expression Xi used to announce the deflation of the real estate bubble.
Xi is saying he wants an end to “involution” (“内卷”, Neijuan), a term he mentions several times in his text, and which is very trendy in China right now. Probably the best translation for it is not actually “involution” but more something akin to “rat race”, “race to the bottom” or “destructive, zero-sum competition”. It doesn’t only relate to businesses, but also to social issues in China like the extreme competition for education, the 996 culture, the feeling of running faster and faster just to stay in the same place.
It’s true that when you look at the current extreme competition in business, it makes everyone worse off: for instance China leads the world in solar because of this competition but when you look at it individual companies’ margins are razor thin, making this quite the pyrrhic victory for individual Chinese companies.
Same thing for education for instance, where you need ever-higher degrees for the same jobs. What once required a bachelor’s now needs a master’s; everyone studies harder but no one is better off.
To call changing all this “major” is even an understatement given how deeply embedded these competitive dynamics are in all layers of Chinese society and economy. This isn’t just tweaking policy at the margins: this is a bit like trying to transform a Formula 1 race into a marathon while the cars are still on the track. He’s right that this is more and more of a problem in Chinese society but at the same time much of China’s current architecture is built around this hypercompetitive model.
What Xi promotes instead is “high-quality development” which, when it comes to business, means innovation and differentiation rather than price wars, sustainable margins and market consolidation.
He doesn’t touch much in his article about the social changes this implies but we got a preview about what that could mean a couple of years ago when China banned the tutoring industry - an attempt to break the education arms race where parents were outcompeting each others to give their kids every possible edge, which wasn’t good for the kids and the families’ wallets. A typical example of “Neijuan.”
Let’s see how this all materializes but the one thing is sure: the level of ambition here is staggering, even by Chinese standards.
Could this be the shift to a domestic consumption economy that @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net talks about?
I mean, make no mistake, Xi is not pressing the communism button. I’m no expert, but I think this is basically trickle down economics. But if the CPC flexes their muscles adequately to prevent porkie from getting greedy, maybe they can pull it off.
China has been attempting to push for a Dual Circulation Economy (external growth e.g. export balanced by internal growth e.g. domestic consumption) since 2020. This ended in a remarkable failure as China’s trade surplus soared to a record $1 trillion while the domestic economy undergoes deflation and wage stagnation.
So what’s the problem here?
The government tries everything, from fighting involution, to promoting consumption through giving various subsidies and lowering credit interest, except to address the elephant in the room: wealth inequality.
In June 2020, the late Premier Li Keqiang (RIP) revealed to the nation for the first time that 600 million of our population still live, on average, with an income of 1000 yuan (~$150) per month. For most of us, this was the first time that we learned about this fact - coming straight from the government itself.
Despite talks about eradicating absolute poverty, it is sobering to realize that the bottom 40% of China’s population (most of them in rural areas) still live on very low wages. This 600 million sized demographic contributes effectively very little to the domestic consumption.
The people that spend the most are the middle/upper middle class. However, these middle class people are now facing a serious problem: many of them bought houses in the 2010s, and the property prices are now plunging. As the asset prices continue to deflate, they are unable to sell their houses, and still have to pay the mortgage for the next 30 years. As such, consumption from this group is also plunging, leading to deflation as businesses fail, and more people are getting unemployed as production scales down.
As an anecdote, my friend persuaded her husband, AND her parents, AND her parents-in-law to purchase houses in 2019 - when the property bubble was already near its peak (although everyone still had the illusion that it will keep growing forever, somehow). The whole extended family went ALL IN. By 2021, Evergrande would begin its implosion and house prices across the country would begin to fall. Now, the average house prices have fallen to 2017 level, and they have effectively lost 40-50% from the initial value, but still have to work harder than ever to pay off the mortgage loan. She keeps complaining that she has lost the will to live.
That’s just the reality of the middle class in China today. People reduce spending and begin to save wherever they can for the fear of losing their jobs in the broad climate of economic downturn and uncertainty. And the accumulated savings - money not spent - set off the deflationary spiral as less consumption led to less business activity, less profit, less demand, and less need to keep workers employed.
What China is doing to prevent a downturn is to dump its exports to other regions amidst Trump’s tariffs, causing countries like Mexico to put up 50% tariffs on Chinese goods to protect its industries and in return, invited China’s wrath. So China’s economy is probably going to be fine, but the Global South countries will have to suffer because of China’s neoliberal policies.
This is why I keep saying that you cannot resolve these fundamental issues without directly tackling the wealth inequality. And the wealth inequality comes from the neoliberal ideas of “balancing the budget”, which encourages countries to run trade surpluses by suppressing domestic demand, when what they should be doing is to run large deficits and give people the money to spend.
There are 600 million people who live on 1000 yuan monthly. If China is willing to give up its neoliberal model and start raising the income of these people through running high deficits, then it can unleash the true potential of China’s domestic consumption to solve much of its economic woes. That’s how you tackle wealth inequality.
CPC has been talking about shifting to domestic consumption for quite awhile, they just haven’t raised wages enough to convince the masses to spend freely.
This dude Arnaud Bertrand is always hyping up everything and anything. I guess if you get a XHS take, who hypes nothing ever, you can triangulate how important that stuff is. Its basicaly some general fiscal and market economy signals going into the the next 5YP.
Firstly that some sectors should reign in price wars and consolidate (EVs in particular), and signals the CPC may be ready to pull the plug of this development phase in EVs and some other high tech sectors and eliminate smaller players while keeping the winners and more predictable market practices.
“promote ‘orderly exit’ of outdated capacities”,“improve fiscal systems, statistical frameworks, and credit mechanisms to promote market unity” “rein in ‘chaos’ in local practices of attracting investments”
I guess these are some about local government dept, financial mechanisms, liquidity and swaps. Its signals from the party that some “centrally supervised capital discipline” project is in order and will continue. More importantly liquidating local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) -and the dept accumulated allong the way that everyone has been fearmongering about- that basically acted as a shroud to veil the very undisciplined financial behaviors of local govts. According to this recent gov paper reviewing the last 5 year plan
“By the end of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms had exited, meaning that over 60% of these platforms’ hidden debts had been eliminated” . Most likely a mix of land collateral asset holding firms and real estate firms getting unwound. The CPC in general seems less concerned about a systemic danger from local dept situation than it was a couple of years ago. Restructuring and cleaning up of local finance has been quitely going on, with some pain of course, and will continue
Also this
This is not correct lol. I was one of the loudest voices on de-dollarization back when Biden raised the interest rate to “fight inflation” back in 2022 and early 2023 that led to a global dollar liquidity crisis.
I was hyping when Russia (very correctly) forgave $20 billion of Africa’s debt in August 2022, and China also followed suit with waiving the interests of some African debtors. I said very clearly back then that if China used its dollar reserve to pay off $800 billion of Africa’s debt, then we have a chance of wiping the slate clean and forge an alternative economic bloc while the US was mired in soaring inflation.
However, I also warned that the so-called BRICS nations, if they were serious about de-dollarization, have a limited window because when the short term US treasuries begin to mature, the huge fiscal flow generated from interest payment will simply flood the external sector and reverse the dollar liquidity shortage again. This proved to be correct.
I hype when the conditions are right. I don’t hype now because… the conditions simply aren’t there.
Having said that, I still pin some hope on the 15th Five Year Plan. So we’ll see.
so… nothing “game changing” but just the same old slow incremental progress as normal? lol
i mean…yeah
These stuff are part of colossal and extremely complicated changes and steered development in industry and finance in the biggest economy of the world. You shouldnt expect anything but slow, calculated progress balancing risk aversion with the need to achieve necessary goals. For better or worse the CPC is running the only state project that is doing actualy existing incrementalism successfully and consistently (towards a positive direction at least, the end goals of which are up to interpetation), and maybe the only ones with the capacity to be doing so
favorite take I’ve seen on twitter is china is the world’s only real social democracy lol
(dont think it’s an entirely fair take but i dont think it’s totally off base either)
In the current era, social democracy can only exist under a dictatorship of the proletariat
maybe a push to purge the neoliberal influence is coming?
how so?
Higher profit margins -> higher wages -> people buy more stuff
Technically you can achieve that if you:
Without these two things, any increase in profit just goes to the capitalists. But presumably if you can force it to go to wages then the outcome would be positive.
Perhaps they believe the problem with trickle down as it has been pushed in the west is that the power was at the top instead of the bottom and that because they have the opposite it can work.
drizzle wide economics
That would mean that there would not be higher profit margins, however, and there also needs to be an incentive to increase workers’ wages/salaries (at a rate that would outpace inflation, to boot, if the aim is to improve workers’ standards of living instead of to increase the GDP and similar statistics).
Furthermore, what reason would capitalists have to invest in the ‘real’ economy instead of just making bank deposits?
It would be better and easier to just return to planned economy.
Seems like course correction away from the SK & Japan model.
This person is a grifter. I will never figure out why the people who copy paste mainstream econ theory get so play in the pro-China circles.
China has been doing this rethorical “pivot” since 2023 and the Biden’s escalation, all the way back to the whole Chinese unfair “overcapacity” shit when the US-EU complained that Chinese renewables and EVs were too competitive. I mentioned this several times over the last 2 years now.
Biden complains, Yellen goes to China and suddenly the CPC agrees that they need to do garbage mainstream econ theory i.e consumption stimulus nonsense because suddenly their economy is “failing”. By the end of 2024 the CPC are patting themselves on the back because they’re doing fiscal stimulus to please foreign investors, begging wall Street to come back and laying the blame on China’s own renewable industry for being “too” competitive.. Gotta love state media glazing increasing foreign investment through fiscal stimulus as a massive W btw.
I’ll make the case once again, this was Xi’s meeting with all the highest-biggest tech CEOs earlier this year, explaining in detail how commited the CPC is towards the dengist reform path towards capitalism and how the capitalists right to exist is a fundamental right that isn’t open to change.
Promote the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy
I wont quote everything, not enough space, you can read disasters like this yourself.
So Xi meets with the capitalists and pats them on the back, with assurances that the good government got them covered and his only demand is nationalist pandering about corporate moral values like fucking Marx and every other communist would be turning on their own graves to even suggest such a thing exists.
In other serious words, more liberal market reforms, a stronger commitment to opening up to foreign international capitalist investment in all sectors. Xi assures you the Chinese economic problems caused by Chinese modern capitalism are not fundamental issues nor long term, but rather localized and short term.
This should be a very clear cut and obvious objection to any Marxist or even socialist-communist still holding out that China will look upon these worst aspects as a signal to advance towards communism. The point he makes about opening up, we’ve seen this trend continuing despite the US escalation and deterioration of global capitalism. China has continued to open up over Xi’s term, cementing his desire to continue on the dengist capitalist path.
The 2025 market acess negative list and 2024 foreign investment negative list shows a sharp and steady trend towards complete opening up of the economy to domestic and foreign capital.
“High quality development” is the closest the CPC gets to their own economic mambo jumbo, it means in reality their own sugar coating of liberal market measures and reforms, including the stimulus packages we’ve seen.
My disagreement with people like xhs is exactly this pandering towards short term measures instead of addressing the worsening state of Chinese and global capitalism. Turning to feel good measures to fight the bad symptoms while continuing to press on the opening up is a massive rethorical contradiction.
My sad realization over these past few years is Dengism is the final destination, the CPC’s only goal is better capitalism until it fails and someone else takes the revolutionary path from their hands, by force.
Opinions of grifters are irrelevant. the CPC is always honest in this regard, they have no shame or objection to tell us how much they love capitalism and it is our fault we don’t care to listen.
If you scare porky with socialist speak they will stop building productive forces for you.
China simply cannot give up the pursuit of economic growth until the existential threat posed by US hegemony is defeated.
I found YouTube links in your comment. Here are links to the same videos on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Link 1:
Link 2: