For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.
Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.
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Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.
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The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.
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The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.
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Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.
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The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.
I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
This dude Arnaud Bertrand is always hyping up everything and anything. I guess if you get a XHS take, who hypes nothing ever, you can triangulate how important that stuff is. Its basicaly some general fiscal and market economy signals going into the the next 5YP.
Firstly that some sectors should reign in price wars and consolidate (EVs in particular), and signals the CPC may be ready to pull the plug of this development phase in EVs and some other high tech sectors and eliminate smaller players while keeping the winners and more predictable market practices.
“promote ‘orderly exit’ of outdated capacities”,“improve fiscal systems, statistical frameworks, and credit mechanisms to promote market unity” “rein in ‘chaos’ in local practices of attracting investments”
I guess these are some about local government dept, financial mechanisms, liquidity and swaps. Its signals from the party that some “centrally supervised capital discipline” project is in order and will continue. More importantly liquidating local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) -and the dept accumulated allong the way that everyone has been fearmongering about- that basically acted as a shroud to veil the very undisciplined financial behaviors of local govts. According to this recent gov paper reviewing the last 5 year plan
“By the end of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms had exited, meaning that over 60% of these platforms’ hidden debts had been eliminated” . Most likely a mix of land collateral asset holding firms and real estate firms getting unwound. The CPC in general seems less concerned about a systemic danger from local dept situation than it was a couple of years ago. Restructuring and cleaning up of local finance has been quitely going on, with some pain of course, and will continue
Also this
This is not correct lol. I was one of the loudest voices on de-dollarization back when Biden raised the interest rate to “fight inflation” back in 2022 and early 2023 that led to a global dollar liquidity crisis.
I was hyping when Russia (very correctly) forgave $20 billion of Africa’s debt in August 2022, and China also followed suit with waiving the interests of some African debtors. I said very clearly back then that if China used its dollar reserve to pay off $800 billion of Africa’s debt, then we have a chance of wiping the slate clean and forge an alternative economic bloc while the US was mired in soaring inflation.
However, I also warned that the so-called BRICS nations, if they were serious about de-dollarization, have a limited window because when the short term US treasuries begin to mature, the huge fiscal flow generated from interest payment will simply flood the external sector and reverse the dollar liquidity shortage again. This proved to be correct.
I hype when the conditions are right. I don’t hype now because… the conditions simply aren’t there.
Having said that, I still pin some hope on the 15th Five Year Plan. So we’ll see.
so… nothing “game changing” but just the same old slow incremental progress as normal? lol
i mean…yeah
These stuff are part of colossal and extremely complicated changes and steered development in industry and finance in the biggest economy of the world. You shouldnt expect anything but slow, calculated progress balancing risk aversion with the need to achieve necessary goals. For better or worse the CPC is running the only state project that is doing actualy existing incrementalism successfully and consistently (towards a positive direction at least, the end goals of which are up to interpetation), and maybe the only ones with the capacity to be doing so
favorite take I’ve seen on twitter is china is the world’s only real social democracy lol
(dont think it’s an entirely fair take but i dont think it’s totally off base either)
In the current era, social democracy can only exist under a dictatorship of the proletariat