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Cake day: May 19th, 2024

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  • Trump did not win the election from voters abandoning the democratic party. It’s a fun and convenient story to spin to your dearest issues, but that just isn’t what happened. I don’t doubt at all what the survey is saying, it just isn’t talking about that many people. You’ll notice nowhere in any of these graphics does it address the actual proportion of voters who fall into this category? There’s a reason for that. Masses of Biden voters staying home or voting for someone besides Harris happened in California and New York, where it was convenient. It did not happen where it actually mattered, in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.

    Across the states that flipped from 2020 to 2024 Harris got 99.4% of Biden’s total. She only lost ~79,000 votes across six states that cast more than 25 million votes each election. The difference between the 2020 Trump that lost and the 2024 Trump that got the flips was more than ten times larger, over ~810,000.

    That this election was not decided on opinions about sending weapons and support to Israel is evidenced even here. In the graphics for this survey in both questions where it pops up, the choice “makes no difference” was by far the most popular answer. There’s no advocacy here from me. No pride or misery(well okay, some misery). It’s just a fact that the ‘average American’, regardless of preference between the two major political parties, does not give a shit about our bombs being used to kill brown people on the other side of the world. This really shouldn’t be news to anybody.