Theoretically they could resupply through Belarus. Any invasion of a Baltic nation would probably require taking the others, but taking Lithuania would let them isolate Latvia and Estonia, forify Kaliningrad, and create a more defensible boarder with Poland.
Regardless, I don’t believe Russia is looking to escalate. At least not until Ukraine is buttoned up. I have been wrong before, but I think Putin is smart enough to avoid declaring war on NATO while in the middle of another attritional war.
Invading Lithuania would mean invading NATO in general. Their opening move would have to be closing the Suwałki Gap from both sides, which means they’d actually be starting with Poland. Belarus would have to accept being a full part of the war at that point.
Of course none of that is going to happen, because Russia doesn’t want World War 3.
Yup, Lihuania, which is a NATO member whose invasion would require a naval supply line seems like the most likely target
Theoretically they could resupply through Belarus. Any invasion of a Baltic nation would probably require taking the others, but taking Lithuania would let them isolate Latvia and Estonia, forify Kaliningrad, and create a more defensible boarder with Poland.
Regardless, I don’t believe Russia is looking to escalate. At least not until Ukraine is buttoned up. I have been wrong before, but I think Putin is smart enough to avoid declaring war on NATO while in the middle of another attritional war.
Invading Lithuania would mean invading NATO in general. Their opening move would have to be closing the Suwałki Gap from both sides, which means they’d actually be starting with Poland. Belarus would have to accept being a full part of the war at that point.
Of course none of that is going to happen, because Russia doesn’t want World War 3.