Image, sourced from this article, is of George Bush in 2002 meeting with María Corina Machado, who was even then being trained as a figure to oppose Venezuelan socialism, and very briefly succeeded with the Carmona Decree. Now the latest recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, she has begged the Zionist entity to drop bombs on the Venezuelan people.
As of me writing these sentences, it appears that the ceasefire in Gaza is underway. Zionist ceasefires are, of course, an oxymoron - not only in the grand sense that their work to continue genocidal atrocities against others locally and regionally will not cease until the Zionist entity’s occupation of Palestine is overthrown and Palestinians can resume the governance of their territory - but also in the literal sense; that bombings and shootings are often only merely reduced, and rarely cease entirely (as was/is the case on their northern border with Lebanon). Nonetheless, hopefully the population can receive some aid, and the long process of rebuilding can begin.
On the other side of the world, it seems increasingly likely that a new war is set to begin. Because the US is eschewing the usual process of generating pro-war propaganda and casus bellis (aside from a laughably transparent Nobel Peace Prize award) and seems content to just skip straight to the “bomb and depose” step, it’s quite hard to predict what precisely they want to do. Anything seems to be on the table - from freely striking Venezuelan territory where “drug dealers” are to try and prompt a Venezuelan response, to assassinating Maduro and/or his generals and hoping a power vacuum can be filled with compradors, to attempting to outright invade Venezuela and establish direct American control over important government sites. All appear to be possibilities, though as of right now, the most drastic measures seem unlikely due to their difficulty.
We know that the US has almost totally abandoned diplomatic communication with Venezuela, and that the US has deployed warships, a nuclear submarine, F-35s, surveillance planes, and at least 4,000 military personnel to the Caribbean, with some sources putting the numbers higher. Some people have suggested that the point is to try and force Maduro into a situation where he must begin hostilities, or be seen as weak and perhaps overthrown from within. It is at least encouraging that Maduro is not like Allende in Chile, and is taking this situation extraordinarily seriously; the masses are being trained and mobilized in the event of an invasion, and military drills are ongoing. Venezuela has no real capacity to stop the US from attacking and bombing them, but it is much more possible to prevent a West-friendly puppet from gaining meaningful control of the country. A comprador might be able to make a brief statement or decree in a Venezuelan city saying that Chavismo is over, but actual power will hopefully prove very elusive.
2020, and particularly 2022, has clearly become a turning point for the Western imperial system, in which increasingly aggressive and reckless moves are required to keep the system functional (stability is, at this point, out of the question). Unfortunately, this has also resulted in the deaths of many long-lasting, inspiring figures, such as Nasrallah, and many more will certainly die before the empire collapses. If Maduro is assassinated - and I’m having trouble imagining how he won’t be doggedly pursued in the days. weeks, and months to come - I have hope that a successor will rise to continue to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, and other delegates are heading to Washington DC, USA this Friday, to discuss (with government officials, energy and most notably US defence companies) “air defense and our long-range capabilities aimed at exerting pressure on Russia for the sake of peace.” In other words, Tomahawk cruise missiles. (And potentially other weapons, but Tomahawk will be the main discussion point due to it’s unmatched range of over 1600km/1000mi)
Co-incidentally today, Oshkosh has revealed a Ground-Based Tomahawk Launcher, called X-MAV, that can launch 4 Tomahawk BGM-109 cruise missiles per truck.
Two points here: This illustrates that it’s not a significant engineering challenge for the US military industrial complex to mount 4 launch cells to a truck, trailer or shipping container; even if Ukraine doesn’t get X-MAV, there are alternatives. Secondly: 4 cruise missiles per ground launch vehicle is actually a lot in the context of the Ukraine - Russia war. 1 Russian Tu-95 bomber can carry 8 Kh-101 cruise missiles maximum (all externally), and 1 Russian missile corvette in the Black Sea can launch 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. So you only need two trucks/trailers/containers to match the maximum loadout of a Russian Tu-95 bomber or warship. Three to match a Tu-160 bomber, which carries 12 Kh-101 internally (rarely used). Obviously strategic bombers and missile corvettes have a much wider use case outside of the constraints of the Ukraine-Russia war, but in the context of this war, you only need 2 trucks to match one’s combat capabilities.
The threat these advanced low flying cruise missiles is significant. This is a completely different threat to the crude Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo or even Ukraine’s upgraded Kh-35/Neptune cruise missiles (the latter have caused significant losses, most notably the sinking of the Moskva), which is why Ukraine wants them so badly, and why Russia is quite concerned.
To defend Moscow from all angles against Tomahawks and the AGM-86, the USSR in the 1980s calculated that they would need a ring of 56 S-300P batteries, (That’s 168 launch vehicles, 672 surface to air missiles, 56 fire control radars, 56 low altitude surveillance radars, 14 command posts and 14 long range surveillance radars). Accompanied by mobile Tor air defence systems, and the inclusion of look down-shoot down capability in the radar of the MiG-31 (MiG-25 did not have this) to “thin the herd” of cruise missiles beforehand. And this was just to defend Moscow, which still has an impressive air defence ring to this day. Obviously not every facility can have such protection. While Russia did manage to shoot down Tomahawks over Syria, the actual number was insignificant. Now air defence systems have advanced significantly since the 1980s, and Russia is vastly more defended than Syria. But if (big if) Ukraine gets Tomahawks, some will get through and hit targets, just like ATACMS and Strom Shadow/SCALP-EG previously. And mission planning will be done by or heavily assisted by US military staff. Russia will probably respond with more actions towards Europe if this happens.
Interesting. US military Tomahawk operators and maintainers are required to have a Top Secret clearance, so it would absolutely be US troops doing everything up to pushing the “Fire” button
Pretty much. Which is why it’s such a big deal.
Nuclear-capable US-satellite-guided terrain-hugging super-long-range cruise missiles. I mean, where else would you draw a red line? My jaw will drop if this does come to pass.
It would be probably the most significant geopolitical escalation in modern history, surpassing even the Cuban Missile Crisis, in my opinion.
Modern variants of the BGM-109 haven’t been nuclear capable for over a decade. There’s zero chance Ukraine gets nuclear armed Tomahawks. Russia fires conventional Kh-101s, Kinzhals and Iskander-Ms at Ukraine (which all have nuclear capable variants currently in service) weekly. I think all the talk of nuclear capable missiles is completely overblown on both sides.
The real big thing Tomahawks offer in navigation is Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator (DSMAC) and Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) navigation. The first Tomahawks were operational before GPS/satellite navigation was, and relied on this to navigate. DSMAC compares images from its optical sensors with those stored in memory, taken from spy satellites and converted to the perspective of a low flying cruise missile. TERCOM uses an altimeter to measure the altitude of the missile and compared it to stored topographical data. Modern Tomahawk variants combine this with satellite navigation, and this is why these missiles can be accurate in GPS denied environments, and can hug the terrain very effectively. It’s also why US military assets will be very involved in any potential mission planning. This is the big issue that can’t be ignored. Who is actually firing the missiles, if all the mission planning is done by the United States?
Modern Tomahawks probably can do “GPS only” missions, so that’s an option, but I doubt that it would be used in such a scenario.
Firing standoff weapons provided by a third party against a nuclear armed nation happened earlier this year, India fired plenty of Israeli and French/British made missiles at Pakistan, and hit plenty of targets. Pakistan fired a few Chinese made missiles at India, didn’t hit much in comparison. (This is about ground targets, Pakistan shot down a number of Indian fighter aircraft). The stability-instability paradox may no longer be relevant with such modern weapons. States may be perfectly fine with firing conventionally armed standoff weapons directly against a nuclear power and escalating despite the risk of nuclear conflict. Iran did so twice towards Israel last year, but backed down after Israeli attacks in response. “Standoff wars” may be a new variable that hasn’t been accounted for adequately in doctrine and statecraft.
*Turkish Missile Crisis
So what will Russia respond with? Nukes? Are we all gonna die? 0.0
Highly doubt any nuclear response. Escalation against Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania, or one way attack drones/cruise missiles towards Poland? Maybe. Russia has already flown MiG 31s in Estonian airspace and flown drones made of styrofoam with no warhead over Poland.
Estonian media has been coping for 2 weeks over the supposed “incursion into Estonian airspace” by Russia, yet there was no sirens or any alerts sent out.
Even when the drones flew into Poland beforehand, the “anti-war NATO pacifists” already were demanding that nuclear weapons were launched immediately, but were insistent that they are actually anti-war BTW, but there must be a war, but totally anti-war, in this endless vortex of liberalism.
There are still many escalation options short of nuclear weapons. In that case of nuclear escalation it could be a tactical nuke in a non-NATO country. Make some tea you’re going to sit through much more of this
This seems like a massive escalation for no advantage that opens up a lot of risk of Russia flattening significant portions of western Ukraine in retaliation.
The advantage would be hitting key manufacturing sites, and all of these actions must be seen in the context of threat reduction both in Ukraine and a hypothetical NATO-Russia land war in Europe, as this is what NATO is thinking. Ukraine is not going to waste Tomahawks on random sheds in Russia (like the US does in the Middle East). For instance, the “target” that there’s a lot of noise about is the Alabuga Geran/Shahed one way attack drone manufacturing facility in Tatarstan. Destroying that would put a large dent in Russia’s drone production, reducing the amount of one way attack drones in over Ukraine, and the size of the stockpile Russia can build up against Europe (in theory). Apply the same theory to missile production, air defence production, fighter jets, etc. This is what NATO planners are thinking about. To bring Russia to the “negotiation table”. They know Ukraine is unlikely to take back ground currently, so this is the card they might play.
As for a hypothetical Russian response, what was Russia’s response to having over 10 Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers being destroyed? That was a big attack by Ukraine. Russia doesn’t have air superiority over western or central Ukraine, launching attacks require on that part of Ukraine requires one way attack drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. Standoff weapons. Russia has been carrying out such attacks for over three years, a big one usually involves hundreds of one way attack drones and dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles. Russia can’t turn Lviv or Kiev into 2022 Mariupol. The Russian ability to respond directly to Ukraine is limited. Which is why I think that they’ll look to respond outside of Ukraine if they respond, there are more options available.
will russia strike their plane over atlantic or continue cuck any% run 🤔
If decapitation strikes won wars then there wouldn’t be any wars.
they do certainly help, and usa pursues them for some reason
As does Israel. Certainly slowed down Hezbollah and Iran for a bit there.
I think such a move would be largely symbolic and such moves are avoided by both sides for good reason, they don’t want to open “Pandora’s box” of civil leadership strikes. Zelenskyy is not going to push the big red button to launch the missiles cold war movie style, and the chances of him being replaced by a pro Russian leader are slim to none in the event he’s assassinated by Russia. If anything, Ukraine would be even more anti Russia and such a move would fail to establish deterrence.
(a) he absolutely would lmao, and the feasibility of that is approaching (b) the networks of corruption run through yermak, by all ukrainian accounts, that would take time to reestablish © that implies ukrainians like z-man, they don’t (d) ukraine, even now, operates as a state, with some laws and procedures still applying, especially as related to mobilization.