This is nothing to do with any current or recent struggle sessions, or any one struggle session/controversy in particular. This is a much broader issue and I am wondering what it holds in store for any strictly leftist social group online. I would also like to apologize to our non-American/Western users as this is going to be very centered on that.

There was a lot of anxiety about Trump’s 2nd term back in 2020. There were people afraid that Trump would be way worse than any Democrat. I didn’t personally see it that way, but I (now) empathize a little more with comrades even if their fears don’t seem deeply well founded. This made everyone a little more jumpy. Everything seemed a little more urgent.

After 2020, a light depression set in. Bernie lost and all the people who supported that were let down. All the people who knew it was going to be a let down lost their energy as well. There wasn’t much of a new thing for everyone to focus on and talk about. Basically the left, as much as it exists, wasn’t in the conversation anymore. We were even more relegated to the crank pit. The media project that had been built, that most of us here paid attention to, simply became about dwelling on history, naval gazing about what is to be done, and supporting media careers as praxis. Even the fascist infighting of Jan 6 didn’t result in anything and thus “nothing ever happens” mentality is born.

Tensions with Russia and Ukraine, and disastrous Democratic presidency gave us something to focus on and plenty of new enemies to fight. We once again could go after libs and point to how liberals are screwing up everything. We had the invention of new internet guys at which to get mad. Ultimately, the war didn’t lead to some new level of consciousness for everyone. It became normal and whatever fresh possibilities existed in Feb of 2022 didn’t exist anymore.

Once again we were looking down the barrel of another Trump term. This time the people who felt that Dems would give some respite from fascism had either been pushed past that by Biden’s term or they left the site. Jan 6 was a nothing burger, so the fear of competency was lessened. Biden had turned most into sickos who felt Trump was exactly what this country deserved, regardless of how bad he is.

The genocide in Gaza did not help attitudes. This also brought some life back to Hexbear in terms of analysis, news, and fighting genocide denial. I think it’s has also had a depressing effect as well. We all see the depravity of Zionists and Western governments every day. We see people being systematically exterminated and everyone waffles, everyone supports it, there is very little political will from anyone in charge to do something. At best it’s turned into a market issue where BDS will save us but then all the Zionists rig that game too.

As for the past few months, it’s been rough. Once again we face massive economic crisis in the US that liberal economic analysis either can’t see or refuses to see. It’s not that the jobs market is in a lull, it’s that it doesn’t exist. The largest sector of the US economy can hire cheap labor at will without having to even look at the domestic labor pool. They’re doing massive quarterly layoffs of domestic and foreign sourced labor. Food costs are still high and getting higher. Inflation can only rise at a faster rate (that won’t be reported).

It is completely safe for the worst right-wingers to espouse their views in public. They are rewarded for it with government jobs. If anyone harms them, the President sends troops to avenge them. The highest law enforcement body in the land will sue on their behalf. There are no brakes here. All those seemingly petty fears from 2020, the debates about Trump being a real fascist or not, are all valid. Jan 6 2029 could be way more serious than the other one. First as a farce, second as a tragedy, so to speak.

The increased popularity of AI has already changed the internet. AI, whether it’s just tulips or the next industrial revolution, is here to stay. The US economy has all but dedicated its entire economy to AI and AI companies.

As others have pointed out, doesn’t the internet feel a little off? The discovery of content has been completely dominated by increasingly fine tuned algorithms that make sure you stay on the correct rails. Podcast media is no longer subversive, if it ever was, it is a real tool of the state and is actively being used as such. Podcast popularity has flooded the market with an increasing amount of superfluous content that buries everything and makes it easier for propaganda outlets to hide. Youtube is nothing now. It’s almost a Skinner box that doesn’t even reward you and produces incomprehensible slop. You can watch short videos that range from roblox rp to nazi propaganda to cooking videos to some 13 year old making guns in his garage within 30 seconds. Everything else, including the best material, is just a gig for people who don’t want a “real” job.

Also thanks to AI, it’s going to be increasingly hard to understand what’s real. The distinction between advertisement and content won’t exist. Everything will be monetized and you will not get a cut.

Just as an anecdote, I have also noticed a slow down on the internet. Not in speed, but in the refresh rate of content. Hexbear seems to get fewer posts, existing posts stay in position longer, fewer comments. I have noticed this on reddit too. It simply feels like there are less people engaging in the internet and are instead just passively scrolling, or the algos have reached a point of tuning to where they are completely busted. But since Hexbear’s algo doesn’t get tuned like reddits, I don’t think it’s the issue.

To bring this back around, I am not sure we are going to make it to 2029. As things get worse materially and the right wing cracks down, everyone will be more on edge. This is going to lead to more and more infighting. People are going to draw harder lines in the sand and be less forgiving of one another crossing it. Now, none of this will be super obvious and to most people it will seem like everyone is being more principled and that’s why it will be accepted. In fact, it will feel good and make us feel like we’re cleaning up the community. This will lead to a series of major struggle sessions that will only break down the user base. Some people will get banned and just leave. Some might come back. Users will leave if no action is taken. Users will leave because they disagree with whatever action is taken. The result is less users.

The internet as a whole is not friendly toward sites like Hexbear. We will begin to run the risk of being targeted. All it will take is some fork of grok at Doge Corp to crawl us and flag us. Then some 14 year old chud prodigy will call his dad at the AG’s office and get us taken down. Or it’ll just be death by attrition from AI agents and reduced engagement. We will be cut off from fresh users from the outside. Federation with other instances will just result in net zero because they’re going to be in the same situation. The difference is they might be more friendly to liberals and live a little longer.

I’m not suggesting any action really I just wanted to share my fears. There is no coalition we can form, no concession we can make. It seems inevitable that our future is offline. We made it, what 5 or 6 years now? I don’t think we can do it for 5 more. If the site is still up, it’s going to be like 20 people at most.