Archive link for those of us in the customs union.
Uh oh 😳. It’s Wes Streeting whom we all hate because of NHS. But he wants us to rejoin the Custom’s Union. Fuck! How do we choose? Will it be a path to rejoining or will it be in fighting and dogma? 🫠😜.
Increasing our trade with Europe (whether it’s with a customs union or some other measure) would be good for two reasons:
The UK specialises in services exports, which are unaffected by a customs union.
Perhaps the EU should become less protectionist, it might help their stagnant economic performance.
I don’t know if the right solution is a customs union, or participation in some areas of the single market, or something else. I just read that the UK’s post-Brexit arrangements “will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU”, so presumably if we boost trade with Europe in certain ways, it should increase British productivity
Returning to common law for regulations more than offsets an annual 0.26% loss of productivity.
And the UK’s productivity problems occured while in the EU anyway.
I linked to the OBR and I find their statements interesting because they’re saying the UK’s productivity will be 4% lower than if the UK remained in the EU. You say the UK had productivity problems while the UK was in the EU. Let’s assume for a second that’s true. Then what the OBR is saying is that there is an additional factor negatively affecting British productivity; that factor is Brexit.
Also I think closer ties with Europe would be good because a united Europe can more effectively stand up to big global powers like the US, Russia, and China. I don’t want to see the UK bending over backwards to accommodate Trump and his illiberal colleagues. Europe together has real weight to push back against the US. E.g. if the UK alone were to tariff American goods then it wouldn’t affect the US too much, but if all of Europe did the same thing together, it would affect the US much more.
It’s a negative forecast based on a loss of comparative advantage in polluting, carbon heavy, low margin goods trade. They factor no increase of competitive advantage in low carbon, low polluting, high margin services exports.
Services exports are up 75% since 2016.
They are not great forecasters.
I don’t know how they came up with their numbers but media outlets seem to be confident quoting their figures. Also I found this written by a Tory who was an MP and is now in the House of Lords:
If I were to see news articles saying that Brexit is having a fantastically positive effect on the British economy then maybe I’ll look at Brexit as being somewhat beneficial. But I haven’t seen that. Also like I said, I think having close ties with Europe can have some benefits beyond just easing international trade. It means Europe together can stand up against big countries who dislike Europe and want to harm Europe.
Maybe we won’t agree though. I guess you think Brexit is going to be a good thing for the UK in the long-term? I guess I’m not so convinced about that.
Yes, another bullshit doppleganger model commissioned by a politician. Maybe investigate this crap before posting it as fact. Meanwhile the UK is still performing exactly the same as its real dopplegangers, France and Germany.
The benefit of leaving the EU is being out of the environmental disasters that are the common agriculture and fishing policies, not whether Doris from Devon can still sell 4 pieces of cheese a week.
0.29% of UK companies stopped exporting. Big deal.
If you think the EU is an environmental disaster then you could argue for the EU to have better environmental policies, rather than argue for the UK to stay out of the EU. Just like if you disagree with some UK legislation then you could campaign for that legislation to change, rather than argue that the UK should be broken up.